ن : abricande
ت : پنج شنبه 16 دی 1400
ز : 10:51 |
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It would seem India and China are destined to live out the foreseeable future as rivals, if not adversaries. In per capita terms we might still be poorer, but in GDP terms it will be bigger.The inexorable growth of China’s GDP has been the dominant event of the past three decades.It is in this context that China’s diplomacy holds some vital lessons for India. This is a made-to-order situation for strategists and leaders in the three countries to ply their trade with plenty of worst-case scenarios. In recent years there has been much speculation on the emerging rivalry between India and China. This is way into the future, and the future often has a habit of not playing out as predicted. This ability will ensure that the swords remain recessed and the plowshares be out at work.China’s defence budget has almost certainly seen double-digit growth for two decades.China’s aggressive soft power diplomacy has widely been seen as arguably the most important element in shaping the Indian Ocean strategic environment, region’s dynamics.. A good deal of this is because India has joined China in the high GDP growth club. Both have too much to lose by it. Its military leaders constantly stress that the development of what is still only a middle-income country with a lot of poor people takes precedence over military ambitions. “China is a big country,” he said, “and other countries are small countries, and that is just a fact. There are three limiting factors. The lower classes will be constant, at around 300 million, as it is at present.He is also well aware that unlike America and Japan, which are physically distant adversaries, India lives cheek by jowl with China with a disputed border.3 billion is likely to belong to the middle and upper classes. Many economists claim that by 2050 it will be India that will have the world’s biggest economy, not China. Not surprisingly, the leaders of both nations are investing heavily in them. Japan is the biggest overseas investor in China.6 trillion. According to SIPRI, a research institute, annual defence spending rose from over $30 billion in 2000 to almost $215 billion in 2015.China’s rise as the world’s greatest exporter, its largest manufacturing nation and its great economic appetite poses a new set of challenges.
This growth projected to start in 2015 and will continue well past 2050.This is not a sum that India can match and the last thing we need to get caught in is a numbers game.India already has the world’s third-largest GDP. First, unlike the former Soviet Union, China has a vital national interest in the stability of the global economic system.6 billion, of which 1.India, on the other hand, will keep growing long after China has stopped growing. SIPRI usually adds about 50 per cent to the official figure China gives for defence spending, as even basic military items are kept off the budget. A one-party dictatorship will always be able to outspend us, even if our GDPs get closer. At a meeting of South-East Asian nations in 2010, China’s foreign minister Yang Jiechi, facing a barrage of complaints about his country’s behaviour, blurted out the sort of thing polite leaders usually prefer to leave unsaid. Yet these two nations are highest in China’s ranking of adversaries. That is just a fact too, one that the rest of the world has to come to terms with. Conflict cannot be a standoff affair for both nations.Geography and recent history have made the India-China relationship a difficult one, and one in which the US will find ample space and opportunity to inveigle itself to its advantage.If India keeps growing at the current rate of around seven per cent, its GDP will surpass that of China by 2045; and if India’s population stabilises in 2050 at 1.But what does this imply for the world’s power structure It is undeniable that the world’s economic fulcrum will shift to Asia. China’s GDP is expected to surpass that of the US well before 2020, when it will be about $24.”Indeed it is, and China is big not merely in terms of territory and population, but also military might. Its youthful population and present growth trends indicate the accumulation of the world’s largest middle class in India.6 trillion, compared to America’s $23.6 billion, then in all likelihood its GDP too will surpass China’s.In fact, so big will this become that India in this period will increasingly power the world’s economic growth, not China. Both modern states are inheritors of age-old traditions and the wisdom of the ages.There is a certain equilibrium in Sino-Indian affairs that make recourse to force extremely improbable.The real test of China’s willingness to keep military spending constant will come when China’s headlong economic growth starts to slow further. It is Indian and Chinese troops that face each other eyeball to eyeball. Its Communist Party presides over the world’s largest military buildup. To replicate China’s achievement might be a tall order for a nation like India, which matches it in size and potential, but not in political structure and national will.
The US is China’s biggest trading partner and contributes hugely to the China’s economy, with its gigantic annual trade deficits.The china fabric suppliers writer, a policy analyst studying economic and security issues, held senior positions in government and industry. Both now know how much of the sword must be unsheathed to send a message.That said, the threat from China should not be exaggerated. In 2050, India is projected to have a population of 1. Asia’s GDP already exceeds that of the US and the European Union. Having surpassed Japan a few years ago, China is now taking aim at the United States ($17 trillion). It is now about one-third of China’s. By 2050 it will account for over 50 per cent of global GDP, with India or China at the top. The list of nations that are now within China’s strategic orbit appears to be growing. So we must look at the present. Last year, its spending on internal security outstripped military spending for the first time. With a population that is rapidly ageing, it is also a good bet that meeting the demand for better healthcare will become a higher priority than maintaining military spending. Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems to have drawn some lessons from this, and is seeking a closer and deeper economic and financial engagement with China, though many in India’s security establishment look at it with askance. He also specialises in the Chinese economy.
Peace and growing economic interdependence are more viable options. It took China a little less than a decade to make a similar leap to overtake Japan. Going by past form, China’s leaders will continue to worry more about internal threats than external ones. By giving large loans on generous repayment terms, investing in major infrastructure projects such as the building of roads, dams, ports, power plants and railways, and offering military assistance and political support in the UN Security Council with its veto power, China has got considerable goodwill and influence among the Indian Ocean region countries
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